Newsroom Blog

Watford may be the most accurate weathervane constituency in Britain.

It is seen as the "tightest three-way marginal seat", with one foot in the metropolis and the other in the countryside.

In every election since the Second World War, with just two exceptions, the town has voted for the party that went on to form the government.

Yet should the desire to register a protest vote still be as strong at the next election, the Liberal Democrats could buck recent trends and wrestle the seat from Labour's now weakening grip.

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In the wake of the expenses row, much has been made of the prospects of 'anti-establishment' candidates and parties.

If and when the Greens win their first seat at Westminster, it could well be the seat of Brighton Pavilion on the Sussex coast.

With current MP David Lepper standing down at the next general election, Labour candidate Nancy Platts may need to rely on opposition being split between the Greens and any Tory resurgence.

The Conservative challenge suffered a blow when their candidate Dr David Bull decided to step down as his party's choice in June.

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An additional four MPs will be squeezed into the Commons after the general election.

The latest Boundary Commission review of constituencies has increased the number of parliamentary seats from 646 to 650, with England taking all four extra seats.

And there are 83 new constituencies, 439 which retain their name but will see boundary changes, and just 128 that are unchanged.

Seventy-nine existing constituencies will cease to exist, with the biggest losses taking place in London, the South West, and Yorkshire and Humberside.

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An entirely new constituency, York Outer is at first glance distinguished by its unique 'doughnut' shape, which surrounds the seat of York Central.

Comprised of wards from four defunct seats (City of York, Vale of York, Ryedale and Selby), York Outer is predicted to become a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal after the election.

The notional general election results from 2005 gave the Lib Dems a slender four per cent lead.

In spite of the local Conservative pedigree, most of York Outer's wards are currently held by the Liberal Democrats.

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Robin Walker, Conservative prospective parliamentary candidate in Worcester, looks forward to the general election being called.

When I was first selected, in August 2006, it seemed a general election might be just nine months away. It's ironic that it could still be the same distance now, but at least there's more certainty it will definitely happen soon.

I remember leaving work before the 2007 party conference and wondering whether I would ever come back. I'm glad I did as the time has been well spent - I made it to partner in my firm this year and in Worcester it has meant I've met with thousands more people on the doorsteps, plenty more businesses and many more of the key people in local public services.

I've also had a chance to get involved in social action – helping with literacy in a local primary school. After three years on the campaign trail I am still learning new things each day.

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Ian Hall, editor of Public Affairs News, finds out how many of the next election’s confirmed prospective parliamentary candidates (PPCs) work in public affairs/communications.

How we did it

Defining who works in ‘public affairs’ or ‘communications’ is tricky. During the public administration select committee (PASC) inquiry into lobbying, Peter Luff MP argued that a definition of a ‘lobbyist’ should include those in ‘media relations and advertising’. Others have argued that a definition should be broader, including lawyers or even journalists.

It was easy for us to decide that many PPCs belonged on our list: those, for example, who work for PA consultancies. But many CVs caused us much head-scratching. Our task wasn’t helped by the fact that many PPCs’ websites are vague about day jobs or fail to mention current employment.

We decided to include those who have left PA jobs recently and whose current day-jobs are unknown (eg. Antony Calvert leaving Green Issues or Ivan Henderson leaving Golden Arrow) but, in general, we opted to exclude ‘outliers’ and those whose day jobs lie at the ‘consumer’ (as opposed to political) or ‘marketing’ end of the communications spectrum: for example, Bob Dalrymple, the Tories’ PPC in Stirling, whose day job is a senior brand manager at Maxxium UK.

We also excluded PPCs who formerly worked as lobbyists but no longer do: for example, Laura Sandys (Tory PPC in Thanet South), who used to have her own PA firm; Sarah Carr (Lib Dems in Hereford and South Herefordshire), who was UK head of government relations UK for Nortel from 2004-2007; or Ruth Smeeth (Labour in Burton), who used to be a lobbyist for Nestlé.

Although we believe our research is thorough, we do not present the listing as a definitive guide. There are many PPCs yet to be confirmed across the country, and many public affairs/communications professionals are angling for a candidacy.

Philip Allott
Comms/PA job: Founding managing director of Allott and Associates (PR and marketing firm in North Yorkshire)
Standing for: Conservatives in Halifax

Paul Bristow
Comms/PA job: Director of consulting services (including market research and government affairs) at BIBA Medical
Standing for: Conservatives in Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East

Conor Burns
Comms/PA job: Associate director at PLMR
Standing for: Conservatives in Bournemouth West

Theo Butt Philip
Comms/PA job: Account manager at Bath-based public affairs company
Meeting Place Communications
Standing for: Lib Dems in Bridgwater and West Somerset

Antony Calvert
Comms/PA job: Recently left account manager role at Green Issues Communications
Standing for: Conservatives in Morley and Outwood

Darren Caplan
Comms/PA job: Director of B2L Public Affairs in London
Standing for: Conservatives in Hackney North and Stoke Newington

Richard Clein
Comms/PA job: Associate director at Bell Pottinger North
Standing for: Lib Dems in Sefton Central

Damian Collins
Comms/PA job: Senior counsel at Lexington Communications
Standing for: Conservatives in Folkestone and Hythe

Oliver Colville
Comms/PA job: Director of Polity Communications
Standing for: Conservatives in Plymouth Sutton and Devonport

Alberto Costa
Comms/PA job: Associate of both Bellenden Public Affairs and Brizmo Public Affairs in Scotland
Standing for: Conservatives in Angus

Kevin Craig
Comms/PA job: Founding MD of the consultancy PLMR
Standing for: Labour in South Suffolk

Stella Creasy
Comms/PA job: Head of public affairs and campaigns at the Scout Association
Standing for: Labour in Walthamstow

Tracey Crouch
Comms/PA job: Head of public affairs at Aviva
Standing for: Conservatives in Chatham and Aylesford

Alex Cunningham
Comms/PA job: ‘Comms and PR consultant’ (part-time)
Standing for: Labour in Stockton North

Andrew Dakers
Comms/PA job: Was until recently PA manager at Business in the Community – left to be an independent consultant on PA and corporate responsibility issues
Standing for: Lib Dems in Brentford and Isleworth

Simon Danczuk
Comms/PA job: Founding director of VisionTwentyOne in Manchester
Standing for: Labour in Rochdale

Kevin Davis
Comms/PA job: Setting up charity PA business
Standing for: Conservatives in Yeovil

Thomas Docherty
Comms/PA job: Account director at PPS Group in
its Edinburgh office
Standing for: Labour in Dunfermline and West Fife

Sue Doughty
Comms/PA job: Former MP for Guildford who is now managing director of Corporate Climate
Standing for: Lib Dems in Guildford

Gareth Epps
Comms/PA job: Community relations manager for Crossrail
Standing for: Lib Dems in Reading East

George Eustice
Comms/PA job: Associate director at Portland PR
Standing for: Conservatives in Camborne, Redruth and Hayle

Lorraine Fullbrook
Comms/PA job: ‘PR and media consultant’
Standing for: Conservatives in South Ribble

David Gold
Comms/PA job: Director of media and marketing, Brighton College
Standing for: Conservatives in Eltham

Robert Halfon
Comms/PA job: Political director of Conservative Friends of Israel and self-employed political consultant
Standing for: Conservatives in Harlow

Simon Hart
Comms/PA job: CEO of the Countryside Alliance, Europe’s largest rural affairs lobby group
Standing for: Conservatives in Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

Chris Heaton-Harris
Comms/PA job: Former MEP has just taken a part-time role at Fleishman-Hillard
Standing for: Conservatives in Daventry

Ivan Henderson
Comms/PA job: Former MP who until recently worked for Golden Arrow Communications
Standing for: Labour in Clapton

Simon Hoare
Comms/PA job: Runs Community Connect, which provides ‘planning consultancy and community consultation’
Standing for: Conservatives in Cardiff South and Penarth

Mike Hobday
Comms/PA job: Head of campaigns, policy and PA at Macmillan Cancer Support
Standing for: Labour in Welwyn Hatfield

Howard Keal
Comms/PA job: Freelance PR man with various clients
Standing for: Lib Dems in Thirsk and Malton

René Kinzett
Comms/PA job: Head of PA at the National Council on Archives and associate consultant at Positif Politics
Standing for: Conservatives in Swansea West

Ross Laird
Comms/PA job: Director at Grayling in Edinburgh
Standing for: Lib Dems in Midlothian

Kevin Lang
Comms/PA job: Head of comms for BAA Scotland
Standing for: Lib Dems in Edinburgh North and Leith

Charlotte Leslie
Comms/PA job: Education associate at Portland PR
Standing for: Conservatives in Bristol North-West

Mark Lloyd Davies
Comms/PA job: Head of government affairs and communications at Janssen-Cilag
Standing for: Conservatives in Bristol South

Karl McCartney
Comms/PA job: ‘Management consultant: corporate strategy and communications and project management for a number of clients’
Standing for: Conservatives in Lincoln

Richard Merrin
Comms/PA job: MD of PR company Spreckley Partners
Standing for: Conservatives in Hornsey and Wood Green

Richard Mollet
Comms/PA job: Director of public affairs at the BPI
Standing for: Labour in South-West Surrey

Penny Mordaunt
Comms/PA job: Associate at PR/PA consultancy Hanover
Standing for: Conservatives in Portsmouth North

James Morris
Comms/PA job: Chief executive of think-tank Localis
Standing for: Conservatives in Halesowen and Rowley Regis

Julia Mulligan
Comms/PA job: Runs marketing agency in Leeds
Standing for: Conservatives in Leeds North West

Alasdair Murray
Comms/PA job: Director of think-tank CentreForum
Standing for: Lib Dems in Bournemouth West

Simon Nayyar
Comms/PA job: MD of Citigate Dewe Rogerson Public Policy
Standing for: Conservatives in Hackney South and Shoreditch

Andrew Pakes
Comms/PA job: Associate director at Connect Public Affairs
Standing for: Labour in Milton Keynes North

Priti Patel
Comms/PA job: Director at Weber Shandwick
Standing for: Conservatives in Witham

Luke Pollard
Comms/PA job: Account director at Edelman
Standing for: Labour in South-West Devon

Emma Reynolds
Comms/PA job: Senior consultant at Cogitamus
Standing for: Labour in Wolverhampton North-East

Darren Sanders
Comms/PA job: Account manager at Indigo Public Affairs in London
Standing for: Lib Dems in Portsmouth North

Janice Small
Comms/PA job: Runs Insight Marketing – ‘a small business in media in marketing, working in pharma, automotive, financial services, media, children’s entertainment and politics’
Standing for: Conservatives in Batley and Spen

Philippa Stroud
Comms/PA job: Executive director of the Centre for Social Justice
Standing for: Conservatives in Sutton and Cheam

Maggie Throup
Comms/PA job: Runs her own PR and marketing consultancy
Standing for: Conservatives in Solihull

Stephen Twigg
Comms/PA job: Former minister who is now director of special projects at the Aegis Trust and director of the Foreign Policy Centre
Standing for: Labour in West Derby

Henry Vann
Comms/PA job: Monitoring consultant at PAN/ePolitix.com sister company Dods Monitoring
Standing for: Lib Dems in Bedford

Robin Walker
Comms/PA job: Partner at Finsbury Group, working in financial PR (not PA)
Standing for: Conservatives in Worcester

Sandy Walkington
Comms/PA job: Communications consultant
Standing for: Lib Dems in St Albans

Sam Webber
Comms/PA job: Press and research officer for Freight by Water
Standing for: Lib Dems in Bromley and Chislehurst

Chris White
Comms/PA job: Freelance PR consultant
Standing for: Conservatives in Warwick and Leamington

Munira Wilson:
Comms/PA job: Was until recently PR and PA manager at Beating Bowel Cancer – now gov’t and corporate affairs manager for a global pharma company
Standing for: Lib Dems in Feltham and Heston

Henry Vann, Liberal Democrat prospective parliamentary candidate for the Bedford constituency, details the work that goes into an election campaign.

Being a parliamentary campaigner is – as it should be – difficult. It can be financially draining, particularly if you are younger than most, and most significantly it consumes all your time. But this is good preparation for becoming a new MP.

Over the last year or so, I have gone door-to-door, asking the constituents of my home town to lend me their support, but also listening to what bugs them, winds them up, and what they want changing. The feeling I get is that they are fed up with being let down by blue-red, red-blue government.

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James Alexander, Labour's prospective parliamentary candidate in the York Outer constituency, discusses the issues at the centre of his campaign.

I was selected as the Labour candidate for the new 'doughnut ring' constituency of York Outer in September 2007. This is a constituency that surrounds another, York Central.

I have lived in York for almost 10 years and I was elected a councillor for Holgate ward in May 2007.

My campaign is strong and I have developed a good local media presence. However compared to the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates I am under-resourced financially and in terms of people volunteers.

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With the announcement earlier this week (28th) that Howard Stoate (Labour, Dartford) intends to step down at the next election, the number of MPs retiring from Parliament has topped one hundred.

This mass exodus from the benches - roughly a sixth of members stepping down - will significantly alter the composition of the House after the next election.

And if current poll numbers hold until the general election, the next Parliament is likely to be filled with more Tory faces.

Amongst those retiring are many of the big political hitters of the last 12 years.

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Despite a long and distinguished parliamentary career, it is likely Peter Viggers will be remembered for his starring role in the MPs' expenses saga.

He became the unfortunate poster-boy for the scandal after the Telegraph revealed he attempted to claim £1,645 for a 'duck house' at his second home in Hampshire.

Given the choice of resigning or losing the party whip by Conservative leader David Cameron, he decided to stand down.

Apologising, Viggers said he had been "ashamed and humiliated" over his expenses claim.

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Frequently a thorn in the side of the Labour leadership, Andrew Mackinlay quickly cemented a reputation as an independent-minded backbencher.

Commenting on his resignation, close friend and political blogger Iain Dale said that Mackinlay had become "physically exhausted" by the job.

He added: "He has been a courageous, independent voice, often taking on vested interests. Throughout his 17 years he has developed into a fine parliamentarian.

"The fact that he has so clearly fallen out of love with Parliament should set off a few alarms."

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One of the most high-profile Conservative casualties of the MPs’ expenses scandal, former Daily Telegraph political correspondent Julie Kirkbride, saw her career hang in the balance following revelations over second home allowances.

The Bromsgrove MP said she had "understood" public anger about her expenses but said she had provided an "effective service" to her constituents and wanted to be re-elected despite a 6,000-signature petition calling on her to quit.

The constituency Conservative Party association said it would consider whether Kirkbride would be able to stand again, once an inquiry into MPs’ expenses had reached a conclusion.

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One of the most vocal – and controversial – of the Commons' maverick MPs, Clare Short announced her intention to step down at the next election in September 2006 with characteristic temerity.

Professing to be "ashamed" of the Blair government, Short expressed the hope that the next election would return a hung Parliament - thus advancing the case for proportional representation.

As punishment, she was stripped of the whip and narrowly escaped expulsion from the Labour Party, though she opted to leave the parliamentary party.

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Mark Oaten's can perhaps be seen as an extreme model of a modern parliamentary career – beginning with a spectacular triumph and ending in ignimony.

A dynamic, reforming Liberal Democrat on the right of the party, Oaten rose rapidly through the ranks, becoming a protégé of then-leader Charles Kennedy.

Following Kennedy's deposal in January 2006, Oaten put himself forward as a leadership candidate, triggering a leadership contest. He soon found he was an unwitting stalking horse, however, being able to count on the support of just one MP, Lembit Opik.

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Never an MP to shy from the spotlight, two years after announcing her retirement from the House of Commons, Anne Widdecombe put in her bid for the role of Speaker.

The former shadow home secretary had confirmed she would not be standing for re-election in the constituency of Maidstone and the Weald in 2007.

Her main selling point as candidate was that she would be "unique", because she was asking for the job on an interim basis and would stand down at the next election.

Yet during the expenses scandal the Daily Telegraph revealed she had spent more than £9,000 on her own newspaper cuttings service over a four-year period.

Both the number of cuttings and costs soared during January 2007, as she appeared in an ITV documentary on unruly youths called 'Ann Widdecombe v the Hoodies'.

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