The prime minister's top adviser on rural affairs, Lord Haskins, has called for an end to farm production subsidies.

Haskins, who was appointed rural recovery tsar after the foot and mouth crisis, also criticised countryside-based commuters for not caring about where they live and told farmers that they are the greatest threat to their own survival.

"The greatest threat for the future lies with the farmers themselves. If they reject change, including the need to abandon the culture of dependence, then the long-term erosion of their position will only accelerate," he says in a report for the Foreign Policy Centre.

He expressed particular concern for the future of dairy farmers.

"There are around 22,000 dairy farmers now. I would be very surprised if there were more than 15,000 left in seven or eight years time," he said.

"Those that cannot hang in will have to accept that the days when you could make a living from a small herd are long over. Nowadays, you need 400 or 500 cows to make money."

The Labour peer also warns that farming will have to face up to some tough choices over coming years.

"We need to decide what kind of countryside we want and then ensure its future. Production subsidies need to be replaced by rural development payments that reward farmers for managing the environment in a way we all want," he said.

"In the EU, citizens value a well-maintained countryside and appear to be prepared to pay farmers to do that. In Scandinavia and France there is a strong sense of social solidarity with the countryside, but this scarcely exists in England."

He also warns that city-dwellers who view the countryside solely as a weekend retreat are doing damage to the long-term future of rural Britain.

"Too much attention is given to the views of rural commuters and owners of second homes in the countryside who care little and understand little about the rural economy," he said.

The criticism comes in a booklet, "Is there a future for European farming?", which is co-authored by Lucy Neville-Rolfe, the director of corporate affairs at Tesco.

In the pamphlet the pair warn that farmers must think seriously about how they can supply an increasingly discerning customer base.

"Increasingly, customers are willing to pay a premium for quality goods, but don't make the mistake of thinking every farmer can supply niche markets," says the report.

"If too many farmers convert to organic production, for example, prices will collapse."

Andrew George, the Liberal Democrat agriculture spokesman, claimed Haskins' ideas would lead to American-style farming on a large scale that would finish smallholdings.

"Small family farms would be pushed to the wall. British farmers are not 'subsidy junkies'. Farmers' representatives have made it quite clear they want to move away from production support systems," he said.

"Ministers need to reverse the trend that has seen over 200,000 farmers leave the countryside for good in last 50 years. The British food industry - in which Lord Haskins is a major player - has given farmers a raw deal."