Press Release

Government risks losing crucial support over pensions

1 February 2006

Decisive leadership demanded by powerful older voters

Pensions is a key issue for older people1 yet 43% do not trust the Government at all to find a long-term solution, according to new research by Age Concern and ICM. And the charity is warning that without quick and decisive action on pensions, the Government could lose the crucial support of the increasingly volatile over 50s.

Published today, Age Concern’s report Winning in 2009: the importance of the baby boomers 2 reveals that older voters cast more than 40% of all votes in the last General Election - and this number is set to rocket over the next decade as the baby boomers hit retirement.

Crucially, boomers believe the country is heading in the wrong direction and that none of the parties really understands their needs - giving any party that connects with them a huge opportunity in the next election.

With older voters increasingly prepared to switch their vote, and 1.8 million describing themselves as ‘floating voters’, Age Concern is calling on all the parties to fundamentally rethink their policies and the way they communicate with the over 50s.

Gordon Lishman, Director-General of Age Concern, said:

“The political parties cannot afford to take the support of the over 50s for granted. Older voters are increasingly volatile and quite rightly have high expectations. They want strong, decisive leadership that shows a clear understanding of the issues that matter to them.

“Older voters feel let down by the current Government but are deeply dissatisfied with the alternatives. Each of the parties now has a unique opportunity to win the support of this powerful force. But to do so, they must get to grips with the reality of people’s lives and make bold decisions to ensure that ageing becomes a genuine opportunity for all.”

The demographics

• Even if the Conservatives made no progress at all by the next General Election, Labour would still lose one per cent of its vote – that’s 10 seats – simply on demographic trends, due to the rising number in ‘grey voters’ whose instincts are Conservative. 3
• On current demographic trends, Labour-held marginals which could be lost through the greying of the vote range from the seaside town of Hove in Sussex to Battersea in south London. 4
• At the last election, Labour’s vote share fell by six per cent among those aged 55-64 and by four per cent among the over 65s. The Conservative’s vote share was unchanged among the 55-64 aged group but increased by one per cent among the over 65s. The Liberal Democrat’s vote share increased by five per cent among those aged 55-64 and by one per cent among the over 65s.5

The turnout of older voters - looking in detail 6

• From 2005 to 2009, votes cast by older voters are estimated to rise 2.1% to 43.3% in England and Wales – an additional 1.2 million votes. By 2025, older voters will account for nearly half of all votes cast in England and 53.9% in Scotland. Scotland and Wales are expected to pass the 50% mark by 2020.
• In 2005, there were strong regional variations in the proportion of older voters, ranging from 45.3% in the South West to 32.5% in London. By 2009, the South West stands out as the earliest to experience the transition to the kind of age structure which will be the norm for the rest of the UK in future elections. By 2025, if the age gap in turnout remains at 2005 levels, every region in England, with the exception of London, is projected to have a majority of older voters.
• There are wide variations between parliamentary constituencies. In England and Wales, 24 seats had an older voter majority in 2005. By 2009, the number of older voters increases in 448 seats, stays the same or decreases by less than 1% in 61 seats. In 59, mainly inner city, seats, it decreases by more than 1%. By 2025, just over half of constituencies in England and Wales will have a majority of older voters.

The publication of Winning in 2009: the importance of the baby boomers coincides with the launch of Age Concern’s groundbreaking new website www.20millionvotes.org.uk which predicts the turnout of older voters in 2009 and 2025 compared to their younger counterparts by constituency - a must have tool for any parliamentary candidate.