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Will Gordon survive?

8 June 2009

Sam Goldwyn, the legendary Hollywood film producer, was once asked his opinion about a piece of juicy film industry gossip. Supposedly, he said “Nobody knows nuthin".

And that's roughly the way things feel in Westminster. As I write this, Gordon Brown is preparing to face his own MPs at the Parliamentary Labour Party meeting this evening. Everyone is expecting he'll get a rough ride, but no-one knows whether he will emerge triumphant, or as toast.

So there's lots of gossip, but precious few facts. And, for most people, the endless speculation is starting to get rather boring. No matter which Minister resigns, or what election results are announced, the question stays the same: will he stay, or will he go?

For what it's worth, I think he'll stay. Not because the electorate think it would be best for the country if he did. Nor because Labour MPs expect him to behave any differently in the next six months than he did in the last. I think he'll survive simply because, if they ditch him, their new leader will have to call an election immediately. And, given the electoral drubbing they've just suffered, no Labour MP will want to be the turkey who votes for Christmas.

So I suspect they'll want to choose a new Speaker for Parliament, get the expenses scandal sorted out and keep trying to fix the economy. Most of them will feel that, if they can deliver on at least two of these three issues, their General Election chances can only get better from here. But I could be wrong, because “nobody knows nuthin" and the gossip-mills are working overtime. Perhaps it's better to follow the advice of another famous American, the baseball coach Yogi Berra, who said you should "never make predictions, especially about the future."