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Zimbabwe is gradually emerging from over a decade of economic decline driven by political instability, says Lord St John of Bletso.
For the first time since 1997, the country recorded positive GDP growth in 2009 of 5.7 per cent and is expected to grow by 8.1 per cent in 2010 and over 9.3 per cent in 2011.
Inflation, which averaged over 12 trillion per cent in 2008, was almost eradicated in 2009 following the introduction of the multi-currency regime and the abandonment of the Zimbabwe dollar.
Recent statistics for 2010 put inflation at under four per cent with the economy being driven by mining, agriculture and the services sector.
Demand for goods in the rural areas suggest that spending power in previously deprived parts of the country has grown significantly, the net result of farmers being able to sell their produce for the first time in US dollars.
Much of this progress has been achieved over the last 18 months since the signing of the global political agreement (GPA) and the formation of a government of national unity (GNU) in February 2009. However, a lot more needs to be done to restore investor confidence in Zimbabwe.
Progress on the economic front has not been matched on the political front. Fundamental differences in ideology and policies between the three key parties, ZANU PF, MDC T and MDC M have led to political tension that, at times, has become public – the most recent being the announcement of the Indigenisation Regulations by ZANU PF, without consultation with the MDC.
President Mugabe and his hardline supporters have been pushing hard for immediate implementation of the Regulations, which has led to the recent raids by Mugabe's militants on leisure resorts and foreign-owned businesses in Zimbabwe.
They have attempted to justify their actions by blaming the international sanctions on the country. As the limited sanctions are relatively ineffective, there is growing support for their review, encouraging the positive forces on the one hand, whilst keeping the pressure on President Mugabe and his hardline supporters. This could, potentially, neutralise the threat of indigenisation and assist the process towards free and fair elections in the country.
Whilst Robert Mugabe has indicated his desire to have elections in June this year, this is highly unlikely to happen until 2012 or even later. The SADC-appointed troika led by South African President Jacob Zuma will only sanction elections once a new constitution is in place and all the necessary electoral law amendments have been implemented, including a review of the electoral role.
The referendum for the new constitution is unlikely to take place before September 2011 and the country will need at least six months to prepare for elections. The business community has appealed to the government to allow the GNU to continue and allow the economy and business to recover.
Early elections would, in my opinion, have a significantly negative impact on recent progress, and the economy remains fragile.
Despite the political uncertainty, the unity government has made progress, particularly on the membership of the three commissions being the Electoral, the Human Rights and Media Commissions, as well as on the Constitutional Outreach Programme.
In conclusion, it is my opinion that our foreign policy should be forward-looking for the good of the Zimbabwean people, and not backward-driven for what has occurred in the past.
A hereditary peer, Lord St John of Bletso first entered the House of Lords in 1978.
He will ask the government "What measures they are taking to assist the government of Zimbabwe to expedite the processes enabling free and fair elections under the new constitution."
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