Lord Dixon-Smith: Our energy dilemma

Lord Dixon-Smith outlines the details of a debate in the Lords on Thursday regarding the changes required to meet the 2050 carbon dioxide emissions target set by the climate change committee.

Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 80 per cent requires reducing emissions to the situation that existed in about 1850. The United Kingdom population was then about 22 million people.

We have to remember that by 2050, the global population is expected to have risen to 9 billion and the UK population to around 80 million.

Reductions on the scale required cannot be achieved by a combination of increasing fuel efficiency and a few technical developments with a supplement from nuclear power. A more focused and intensive development programme will be needed.

Solutions have to be found that march with the grain of society and its expectations - to do anything else will be likely to fail.

There are some industries where fossil fuels are the only source of energy that can be utilised. The smelting industries involved in metal production and the cement producing industry are examples. The agricultural industry can do little to reduce methane emissions from cattle and sheep for which there will be rising demand as both the population and prosperity rise.

Because of the problem of energy density, the aviation industry might also be considered an essential user.

All the above, and any industries similarly situated which are fundamental to society today, must continue to develop if society is to continue to progress.

For that to be accommodated, it is not unreasonable to suggest that to meet the target for 2050 everything else will have to become greenhouse gas emissions free.

This means that, with the exception of essential users, the whole of the industrial sector, the whole domestic sector and the whole of the ground-based transport industry will have to become greenhouse gas emissions free.

The technologies already exist to make it possible. But it is not possible at this stage to be certain which will be the technologies that ultimately become the new global energy sources.

The main driver for all economies will be economic competitiveness and now we are in the era of the global economy, competitive energy prices may become more important for the future of the UK than relying on home-produced energy. That will be a dilemma for future governments.