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By Sam Macrory - 30th November 2010
So a big welcome back then to the Autumn statement, last seen in the November of 2001. Sadly there’s no avoiding the obvious: it has aged badly.
This despite a re-branding – it is the artist formerly known as the pre-Budget report - and the introduction of a new lead character: the Office of Budget Responsibility.
Times have changed, however, in the world of financial set pieces at Westminster. The Budgets still gets all the best lines, but as austerity measures take centre stage the Comprehensive Spending Review took this year’s star-billing.
Even David Cameron arrived too late to hear Osborne’s opening lines, scurrying in after the statement had begun early. Tension levels were set to low.
Could the debut of the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR), the Treasury-financed independent bean-counting body, add some drama to proceedings?
No, not really. In the least surprising revelation of the day, the independent OBR seems to support more or less every financial tweak and turn advocated by the chancellor George Osborne. At least that Osborne’s take: the OBR’s warnings of “inherent uncertainty” ahead barely merited a mention.
Osborne tried to ratchet up the drama in the House, playing for a histrionic pause as he declared: “We should take a moment to recognise the significance of this occasion.” The moment passed. "Today is the first time that members of this House will engage in debate about an autumn forecast produced by the independent OBR, rather than conjured up by the chancellor of the exchequer."
And, luckily enough, Osborne declared that the OBR backs his economic plans: Britain should avoid a double-dip recession while one million new jobs would be created. The government would also stop “hiding people” who can work on incapacity benefit. Iain Duncan Smith, arms folded and gum being chewed, nodded his approval. The Tory backbenches jumped with excitement.
All in all, Osborne declared, this showed that we “were right to take Britain out of the economic danger zone”, a line he returned to with mantra-like repetition, much to the Labour benches’ annoyance. Just don’t mention the Irish model, which just two years’ ago had Osborne publicly salivating with admiration. Today, however, Osborne looked like a chancellor who believed he was right on just about everything - that sounds familiar - whereas “what they propose would be disastrous”. Nigel Lawson, a Conservative predecessor of Osborne, smiled down from the gallery; Tory MPs cheered as one.
At one point Ed Balls, on Labour’s frontbench, shook his head from side to side for over a minute without a break. Don’t try that at home. Angela Eagle, next to him, just went for a rigid scowl, though that may be her normal facial expression.
Alan Johnson, the shadow chancellor, tried his best in an enjoyable performance. “Let’s move from bombast to reality” he began, a little wearily, dismissing Osborne’s “unprecedented gamble with people’s livelihoods.”
Osborne sneered, a look that said: you’ll have to do better than that.” Except Johnson can’t, because no-one listens to shadow chancellors.
Worse still, this shadow chancellor had just admitted that he learned his economics from a summer’s intensive reading of the Financial Times. Where once chancellors were allowed to take strength from a tumbler of whisky, today Osborne had brought along a copy of the FT for support.
Johnson must have known what was coming, as Osborne read out a recent quote he had given to his organ of choice. “"I am a great believer in the philosophy that if you've not got anything to say, keep your mouth shut".
And then, just two words from Osborne. “Very good”. It was damning, and it summed up a chancellor apparently oozing in confidence, and now basking in the backing of independent scrutiny.
Sam Macrory is the Political Editor of The House Magazine.
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