On the morning of May 6th, Liberal Democrat supporters were asking themselves: “If not now, then when?” By midnight, after the painful digestion of an exit poll which predicted an unexpected fall in the third party’s tally of seats, the answer, clearly, is never.
How, the party will wonder, could this have happened? In the build up to polling day a variety of factors, with party leader Nick Clegg’s strong performance in the televised debates at the fore, had given the Liberal Democrats an unprecedented poll rating of second place.
Clegg was declared the most popular British political leader since Winston Churchill. This was, we were assured, the year that the Lib Dems would make their breakthrough. A bit of caution might have been wise. After all, they’ve been here before.
So it’s unsurprising that Clegg and his allies are sounding gloomy this morning. There is of course a flip side.
The electorate may not have rushed into the arms of the Liberal Democrats, but they flinched when Conservative leader David Cameron came calling. The result, a hung Parliament, has been the holy grail of every Lib Dem leader since Jeremy Thorpe was last dealt the hand in 1974.
Nick Clegg, albeit briefly, finds himself the most wanted man in British politics, courted by both Cameron and Gordon Brown, now clinging on to his political life, as both the Tory and Labour leaders seek his support to form a stable government.
Clegg appears to be suggesting that Cameron, as the leader of the party with the most seats, has earned the right to attempt to have the first chance to show that he can form a government in the national interest. That leaves wriggle room a plenty.
What is clear from this election result is that the current electoral system of first past the post will never allow the Liberal Democrats to achieve that breakthrough.
The party is destined to remain stuck in the limbo existence of a 50 to 60 seat collective, too small to wield real influence and slipping from view as it gasps for the oxygen of media coverage in the long years between elections.
So whatever Clegg does next, the one demand he must insist upon has to be electoral reform. By 11pm last night Labour had already begun to barter, with home secretary Alan Johnson, a keen advocate of proportional representation, calling for the parties to work together.
Lord Mandelson, the business secretary, also welcoming talks by declaring: “There has to be electoral reform as the result of this vote because I think first- past-the-post is really on its last legs.”
The same noises aren’t emerging from what must be a shell-shocked Conservative Central Office, with many Tories finding the idea of electoral reform utterly objectionable.
So the Labour offer must leave Clegg tempted to take up the most realistic chance to shake-up the electoral system since the advent of universal suffrage.
Clegg is already being told that to prop up the defeated Labour leader, the clear loser of the popular vote, would be morally repugnant, but the Lib Dem leader is not powerful enough to demand a change of Labour leadership.
However, should Brown remain in office the country won’t take kindly to a loose deal of Lib Dem support of government legislation in return for a referendum on electoral reform.
However, a morally justifiable arrangement could be a formal coalition. Yes Labour lost the election, and yes the Liberal Democrats failed to breakthrough, but the combined votes of the two parties outstrip the Conservatives, and the case could be made the majority of the country has voted such a pact.
With this working arrangement in place, Clegg would be in position to push through a referendum on electoral reform which, if successful, represents the Liberal Democrats’ only chance of achieving parity with the other two parties.
The gamble is huge, with Clegg needing this coalition to exist long enough to see a bill on a referendum passed and then that referendum take place.
Should it fail, then the Conservatives would be the beneficiaries of a botched deal, with the Lib Dems and Labour punished at what would likely be a second election in 12 months.
But if electoral reform is on the table, then Clegg surely has to settle upon an arrangement which, to his party and the opposition, he can claim is morally acceptable.
This is a moment of maximum danger for the Liberal Democrats.
They will be accused of being opportunistic, or they can end up looking impotent and remaining the shadows.
Their time wasn’t now, but it will never come unless the electoral system is reformed.
Sam Macrory is features editor of The House Magazine.
