Austerity is not the best way out of recession

The bond markets want prudent behaviour in the good times, not vicious austerity regardless of the economic weather, says economist Giles Wilkes.

Not long ago, George Osborne was forced to concede grudging praise for Labour's record of macroeconomic stability.

How things change.

Now the debt-fuelled crisis, steep recession and subsequent fiscal collapse have made economic competence the foremost issue for the election.

Whatever vital part it played in cushioning the recession, the deficit is now the problem – and dealing with it ought to define politics for a decade.

Until recently, the positions were clear. The Conservatives argued for an unremitting focus on the deficit.

Phrases like 'calling in the IMF' and 'bond market strike' peppered their comments. So great was their alarm at debt levels that they opposed fiscal support even as the IMF called for more.

But what this lacked in conventional economic support, it made up for in rhetorical clarity. Here is a simple problem - debt - and a simple answer - austerity. And only one party is good at austerity.

Against this, Labour and the Liberal Democrats have walked a tightrope between support for a fragile economy now and the need for tough measures later.

This position can be accused of lacking credibility, particularly when the prime minister took months to accept the need for spending cuts.

There is some justice to this accusation; the Budget implies quite unprecedented spending cuts, but very little detail has been given about the staff to be sacked, the hospitals mothballed, the pensioners to be deprived.

Then George Osborne threw mud into the clear blue water by promising to use efficiency savings to raise National Insurance thresholds.

This flew in the face of what 'worried by debt' is meant to mean. When pestered by the bailiff, you should use whatever small change found behind the sofa towards paying your debts.

Indeed, this is just what Alistair Darling did in the latest Budget when he 'found' £10bn in lower projected borrowing - a display of prudence unprecedented in pre-election Budgets.

This allowed the chancellor and Vince Cable to round on Osborne for being 'irresponsible'.

However, views on the deficit will continue to define the political debate through the election campaign and well beyond.

While differences between the various parties' timings are small, the choices will still remain acute for a long time.

Writing as an economist, some of the advice is clear. Tax rises tend to damage the economy far more than spending cuts.