By Robert Hazell - 10th May 2011
Alex Salmond is rightly triumphant following the SNP’s spectacular victory. He has promised a referendum on Scottish independence. Some media reports suggest that if the Scots vote Yes, they would automatically become independent. Not so.
The most that a referendum initiated by the Scottish Parliament could achieve is to authorise the Scottish government to open negotiations with the UK government.
Those negotiations would cover a wide range of complex issues which could take a long time to conclude. The Czech-Slovak division in 1992 required 31 Treaties and over 2000 agreements. These would constitute the terms of independence, on which the people of Scotland deserve a separate vote.
The Constitution Unit has long argued that Scottish independence requires two referendums. The first reason is a question of law: under the Scotland Act only Westminster could authorise the second referendum that would grant Scotland independence.
But there are also reasons of principle why there should be two referendums. People in Scotland might support independence in principle, but think again when confronted with the terms of independence.
The terms will include not just issues like North Sea oil, but division of the national debt, Scotland’s continued membership of the EU (not automatic), the armed forces, and the future of the UK’s defence bases on the Clyde.
There can be no doubt that the first referendum, if passed, would give the Scottish government authority to demand independence, and compel the UK government to enter into negotiations. But the Scots are entitled to know the detailed terms of independence before making the final, momentous decision.
Professor Robert Hazell is the director of the Constitution Unit at UCL.
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