The government is in a "dangerous position" and must engage in deeper consultation with grassroots members, a senior MP has warned.

Appealing for discipline and greater rank-and-file input on key policy issues, Clive Soley said that "all previous Labour governments have foundered... on internal division".

Whilst Tony Blair will be able to ride out the government's current problems, the MP suggested he will not serve for more than a decade.

Following rows over the war with Iraq and foundation hospitals, the former chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party called for a period of reflection.

"That does involve everyone from the ordinary member, to Cabinet ministers, the prime minister and so on. Everybody needs to focus on the importance of not losing the plot," he told this website.

Maintaining discipline will become harder as the government's period in office grows, Soley warned.

"After about six or seven years you get to that stage where an awful lot of people who've either fallen off the greasy pole or not got on it, and there's therefore a lot of people on the backbenches with a lot of experience, a lot of feeling about wanting to put the world to rights, and they are prepared to be much more upfront about it," he added.

On the issue of university top-up fees, which is set to lead to deep Labour divisions, Soley adds that the "policy is right but the politics of it are pretty grim".

Future policy announcements will require "more consultation" if the government is to present a united front, he said.

Meanwhile ministers will have to "to get a bit smarter" if they are to avoid problems such as the school funding crisis.

As the prime minister prepares for what could be a bloody party conference, Soley urged the leadership to adopt a "we are listening" tone.

But he accepted that Blair's recent woes mean that "he won't return to the very high position he had in the late 1990s".

Soley told ePolitix.com that the prime minister will not remain in office for a full third term.

"Given the 24-hour nature of the current media, I don't think prime ministers will ever again return to a situation where they can be in power for 10, 15 or more years, I just don't think we're going to have that experience again while the media puts the focus so intensely on one person," he added.

"I don't think Tony's likely to go in the near future, I do think he's got plenty of mileage left in him. He does need to respond well to the present problems, but if he does that there's no reason why he shouldn't lead us beyond the next election.

"After that, I think he has to start thinking, as any prime minister would do, of how long they want to go on for."

Soley also signals that the chancellor's desire for a bloodless succession is unlikely to occur.

"I know Gordon Brown would like an elegant succession, but really it's very hard to see what the party will want in three or four years time and I don't think there's any sort of guarantees about succession," he suggested.

"So I think all you have to say is if Tony Blair's still doing a good job in leading the country, then he needs to stay there.

"When he's ready to go, and assuming that we don't get into terrible trouble of any sort... then there will be a proper election system at that time and although Gordon might well get it, there are no absolute guarantees."