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Brown's 18 background briefings

The 18 background assessments cover a range of areas from the effect on jobs and taxes through to the impact on jobs.

In their 1700 pages the documents underline that the chancellor will only sign up to the single currency once there is clear evidence that the case for membership is strong.

"The government has set exacting requirements for the assessment to ensure that it provides a sound basis for a decision of this magnitude," they say

"The government will only make a decision to recommend joining EMU if the case is clear and unambiguous."

Among the areas where concerns still exist is employment. Calling for greater labour market flexibility one report warns there are "major challenges" ahead.

The documents also warn of job losses if Britain joins the euro at the wrong rate.

But fears that euro membership could hit the City are dismissed.

Describes the framework for assessing whether membership of EMU is in the UK's national economic interest. It outlines the main issues that are examined in the assessment of the five economic tests and the approach taken in coming to a decision.

This study can be seen as a guide to the assessment and the accompanying EMU studies.

To view the full document simply click here.

Analysis of European and UK business cycles and shocks, reviews literature relevant to the convergence test based on business cycle and shock correlations, updating previous work and analysis.

The study considers methods of defining and measuring the convergence of business cycles. It also discusses the ways in which UK business cycles and shocks differ from other countries, making particular comparisons between the UK and the rest of the EU and the US, and whether monetary conditions in the euro area have tended to suit the UK or not.To view the full document simply click here.

Estimates of equilibrium exchange rates for sterling against the euro examines the theories and empirical evidence on economic forces that determine EERs and considers different methods of estimating EERs.

It uses a new model to estimate new medium-term equilibrium rates for sterling-euro and euro-dollar equilibrium exchange rates.

To view the executive summary of the document simply click here.

The study considers in detail an important structural aspect of the UK economy: the housing market.

The study addresses the question of whether UK households are more sensitive to changes in interest rates than euro area households on average as a result of differences in housing market structures, and the implications of this for consumption.

To view the first half of the full document simply click here.

To view the first half of the full document simply click here.

The document analyses the speed and strength of the response of the economy to changes in monetary policy in the UK and the euro area.

It considers whether the UK response to changes in monetary policy is different to that of the euro area, what the effect of those differences might be and whether any differences would be likely to remain if the UK were to join EMU.

To view the first half of the full document simply click here.

To view the second half of the full document simply click here.

The overall aim of the study is to provide a conceptual framework and toolkit to aid policymakers in their thinking about the transition issue, considering how they might ideally go about implementing this type of regime change so as to minimise the transition costs.

The study is based on two complementary modelling exercises, one stylised, another empirically based, which both adopt a simplified version of the real world.

These models are employed to examine how the sterling-euro conversion rate on entry might ideally be chosen and, more generally, consider how macroeconomic policy might be set in any transition period up to and beyond entry itself.

To view the first half of the full document simply click here.

To view the second half of the full document simply click here.

The study applies a new stylised model to analyse adjustment processes in and out of EMU with possible UK entry in mind.

Outside EMU, UK interest rates are available to respond to economic shocks and the bilateral nominal sterling-euro exchange rate is free to vary; inside EMU, UK interest rates would be determined by the European Central Bank's single monetary policy and the bilateral sterling-euro exchange rate would be irrevocably fixed.

The study considers how the UK's macroeconomic costs of adjustment to economic shocks compare inside and outside of EMU.

To view the first half of the full document simply click here.

To view the second half of the full document simply click here.

The study analyses the flexibility of the UK labour market and also flexibility in existing euro area economies, particularly since 1997. Labour market flexibility is a central element in determining the overall performance of the UK economy, irrespective of whether the UK decides to join EMU, but a low level of flexibility could be more costly within EMU than outside it, since neither an independent monetary policy nor the sterling-euro exchange rate could be adjustment mechanisms in the face of economic shocks.

It is structured around a comprehensive and coherent framework designed to assess the efficiency of different labour market adjustment mechanisms, and constructs a new indicator of labour market flexibility that combines a variety of institutional factors in the labour market.

To view the first half of the full document simply click here.

To view the second half of the full document simply click here.

This document considers whether nominal exchange rate flexibility aids macroeconomic adjustment, both in theory and in practice.

Focusing on the role of the nominal exchange rate when the economy is away from equilibrium, the study considers how the real exchange rate responds to imbalances between aggregate supply and demand, and the part that real exchange rate movements play in enabling the economy to adjust to unexpected events or shocks. It also considers explanations for the strength of sterling since 1996.

To view the first quarter of the full document simply click here.

To view the second quarter of the full document simply click here.

To view the third quarter of the full document simply click here.

To view the final quarter of the full document simply click here.

The EMU study considers the potential impact of EMU on the cost of capital for UK firms. The cost of capital is an important component of a firm's investment decision.

The study considers the ways in which firms raise capital for investments, focusing on the implications of EMU for the cost of external finance, and what the implications might be for the cost of capital of changes in the structure of UK corporate finance prompted by EMU entry

To view the first half of the full document simply click here.

To view the second half of the full document simply click here.

The study considers the extent to which EMU entry might help, hinder or reshape the UK's industrial performance, and the distribution of this impact across different industries and over different time periods.

The study considers evidence on the extent to which potential short to medium-term effects of EMU on business have been observed since the start of EMU. It uses evidence on the impact of the Single Market Programme in the EU, as well as comparisons with the United States, to consider the potential long-term effects of EMU.

To view the first half of the full document simply click here.

To view the second half of the full document simply click here.

Considering the factors that drive the location of wholesale financial activity, the document examines the evidence and emerging trends in the sector.

The study's main focus is on the cluster of wholesale financial services activity in the City, and the relative impact, if any, of currency as a factor affecting the competitiveness and the location of wholesale activity.

To view the first half of the full document simply click here.

To view the second half of the full document simply click here.

This study focuses on the key issue of the extent to which UK trade with the euro area economies might be increased through participation in EMU.

Increasing trade is desirable because theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that more trade leads to higher income, and may increase the long-run growth rate of an economy.

The study reviews the extensive economic literature on the impact of currency unions on trade and relates this to the potential impact EMU entry could have on UK trade, output and income over the longer term.

To view the full document simply click here.

The Treasury notes that the potential impact of EMU on prices "is a key element of the potential microeconomic gains from a currency union".

The study explores the causes of price differentials in the EU at present, and assesses how far and how quickly EMU membership might encourage greater convergence between prices in the UK and the euro area.

The study also explores evidence from the United States, and what it suggests about how prices might converge in the euro area

To view the full document simply click here.

The EMU study considers how the US - a monetary union broadly similar to EMU in terms of the overall size of its market - functions as a large economy with a single currency, and how this has contributed to economic performance.

The study examines the costs and benefits of monetary union in the US, assessing the degree of divergence in regional business cycles, how regions adjust to a single monetary policy and how the existence of a single currency has benefited the US in terms of both macroeconomic and microeconomic performance.

To view the first half of the full document simply click here.

To view the second half of the full document simply click here.

This element examines the robustness of the frameworks for macroeconomic policy in both the UK and the euro area, and the implications for the UK in achieving the goal of macroeconomic stability inside or outside EMU.

Experience has shown that effective frameworks for macroeconomic policy can make a significant contribution to prosperity and economic stability.

The study considers fiscal policy, monetary policy and financial stability, as well as macroeconomic policy coordination.

To view the first half of the full document simply click here.

To view the second half of the full document simply click here.

This document brings together 23 submissions from leading academics who were approached by HM Treasury to update the work they had previously undertaken on the economics of monetary union.

The contributions brought together in this volume have proved extremely valuable to the Treasury, and the insights and analysis that they provide have fed extensively into the Treasury's work on the EMU studies and the assessment of the five tests.

To view the first selection of documents simply click here.

To view the second selection of documents simply click here.

To view the third selection of documents simply click here.

To view the fourth selection of documents simply click here.

To view the final selection of documents simply click here.

The final Treasury document assesses whether a greater stabilisation role could be delivered through fiscal policy, were the UK to join EMU.

The study is based on the premise that, were the UK to join EMU, and be subject to asymmetric shocks, or common shocks that had an asymmetric impact due to different structures, monetary policy as set by the European Central Bank for the euro area as a whole might not be able to react to UK circumstances alone. In such circumstances, there may be a case for an enhanced stabilisation role for fiscal policy.

The paper explores a number of policy options to make discretionary fiscal policy more effective for stabilisation purposes and strengthen the automatic stabilisers, including a new symmetrical fiscal rule to trigger the Government to consider taking action and publishing a Stabilisation Report to enhance transparency.

To view the first half of the full document simply click here.

To view the second half of the full document simply click here.

Published: Mon, 9 Jun 2003 01:00:00 GMT+01
Author: Craig Hoy