Bob Worcester examines whether the war factor will boost Labour's performance in the local and devolved elections.

Is Tony Blair basking in a "Baghdad bounce"? What are the implications for the local elections on Thursday and the eventual general election of the international actions of the prime minister? And what's happened to the pre-Iraq Labour government's dismal service delivery failure and to the allegations of being a focus-group follower and spinmeister?

Our State of Britain poll for the Financial Times goes a long way to answering these questions. The British are proud to be British (77 per cent). They don't want to join the euro just yet, if ever (56 per cent).

They are enjoying a satisfactory standard of living (78 per cent), and are bullish about the economy (63 per cent) and its future, even as far out as five years from now (53 per cent).

Many more think their children will enjoy a higher standard of living than they do now (54 per cent), even if some think their children will have to work more years of their lives (30 per cent).

The doom merchants made much of Britain's opposition to the war in Iraq without UN sanctions or a smoking gun being seen by the UN inspectors (67 per cent opposed the war without both of these conditions, before troops were committed).

Now by more than two to one the British say that the prime minister was right to go to war alongside the Americans even without these conditions. Can this be replicated for the euro?

Within the fortnight we'll be told in no uncertain terms that the chancellor's five economic tests are not met, and that a referendum on the euro is in the long grass. In an article in the Wall Street Journal at the end of June 2001, I said: "I do not believe that the British government will call a referendum on the euro in the life of this Parliament, i.e., not for another four years." I now wonder if it will be in the life of the next parliament either.

All that and more, when you look at the levels of satisfaction with the party leaders are good news for Blair. You don't beat somebody with nobody, and Iain Duncan Smith suffers from low poll ratings personally as well as his party's flatlining in the polls.

So where are the problems for Mr Blair?

A third, 32 per cent, of the public think the state of the economy is poor, including nearly one in four of his party's supporters (23 per cent), one in five (21 per cent) of current Labour supporters) think the economy will be poor in five year's time.

More than four in 10, 43 per cent, think it likely that there will be a major terrorist attack on Britain within the next six months, and six people in 10 feel that his foreign policy has increased this risk.

A majority, 51 per cent, believe that the present system of governing Britain could be improved quite a lot (38 per cent) or needs a great deal of improvement (13 per cent), and there is resistance in the country both to further regional assemblies and to more fiddling with the House of Lords.

Nearly half of the Scots (49 per cent) are dissatisfied with the way their parliament works, as are over a third, 36 per cent, of the Welsh about their Assembly.

The local elections are Thursday across the country, other than in London. It will be reported as the biggest test of the government's popularity since the general election. It isn't.

The Liberal Democrats will poll half again their national level of support, over 30 per cent is my guess, the Tories will trumpet their wonderful result, far more seats won than their deliberate low balling of "they'll be lucky to win 30 extra seats", yet there will be newspapers which will fall for this. Labour will do badly.

So what? Important in the local communities, meaningless as a forecast of a general election in May 2005, which is when I expect the prime minister to call it.

Blair is headed for another Labour landslide of over 100 seats over all other parties in the House of Commons.

With his relations with his colleagues in Europe however, it is hard to see where a man in his early 50s can turn after being prime minister for eight years. Now if he were a natural born American and could run for president of the United States.