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John McFall: Britain's choice on the euro

John McFall writes exclusively for ePolitix.com about the Treasury select committee's inquiry into possible British membership of the euro.

In his Mansion House speech in June, Gordon Brown identified the decision to join the euro as the "biggest peacetime economic decision we as a nation have to make". Certainly the choice that is facing us is the most important of our generation, and it is coming closer.

The government has said that it intends to decide whether the five economic tests have been met by June this year. These five economic tests form the basis on which the government will make a decision about recommending entry.

He specifically identified the tests, as "going to the heart of what is required for the long term future of our economy". For the Chancellor and the government the tests are of fundamental importance in coming to a correct decision about whether to adopt the euro.

If the government's judgement is that the tests have been met and it is in Britain's economic interest to join then a referendum will be held. The tests therefore have a huge significance.

The British public will be faced with the final decision about whether the UK adopts the euro.

At the moment though public debate about economic and monetary union is mired in misunderstanding and false preconceptions. People regularly complain about not being adequately informed about the issues involved. People want to be given the facts, and at the moment they don't feel they are getting them.

This is where I feel the Treasury select committee, which I head, can play a key role. The committee is about to embark upon a wide-ranging and comprehensive investigation into economic and monetary union.

How EMU has functioned since January 1999 will be thoroughly investigated, as will the functioning of the institutions governing EMU, the stability and growth pact and the European Central Bank. Most important in our minds will be the implications for the UK of entry. The five economic tests specifically deal with whether the UK will benefit from entry, and we will explore and seek advice on what the risks and benefits are.

The role of this investigation is to inform. The committee is committed to producing its report before the government comes to its own judgement on whether the five tests have been passed or not. Our aim is to enhance public understanding of all the issues involved, giving them a basis upon which they can come to their own judgement. The report should allow a healthy and informed debate on the decision that the chancellor comes to on the five economic tests.

To explore the fundamentals of EMU the committee will take hearings from all the relevant individuals and organisations. Economic and political commentators from across the political spectrum will come before us. We will question economists who specialize in this field.

Economic and monetary union will affect business and employees, and we shall seek the opinions of both business bodies like the CBI and IoD, and also employees through the TUC. The campaigns bodies will also come before us, both Britain in Europe and the No Campaign.

Importantly, European experts will be invited to come to the committee, giving a first hand perspective on how EMU is working currently on the continent. When the chancellor comes before us, we will have an opportunity to discover the government's current attitude to the five tests and whether EMU is in our interest.

The committee will seek to have the opinion of all those involved and this means understanding EMU is not a London thing. EMU affects the whole country. As a consequence the committee hopes to hold meetings in Northern Ireland, Edinburgh and Dublin. The situation of Northern Ireland is of particular interest due its border with the South, which already uses euros. Euros are already coming into use in the North, and this experience will have an important contribution to make to any judgement we come to.

With the aim of generating debate and creating an increasingly informed public, the committee is investigating the possibility of enabling wider public involvement in forums through the ePolitix.com website. This will have the aim of getting the public to tell us what it is they want to know, and what concerns them about economic and monetary union. ePolitix.com members will be invited to give their response to the committee's investigation. In addition, all ePolitix.com users will be able to give their views on economic and monetary union to the Treasury select committee by emailing euro.inquiry@epolitix.com, enabling a wider public involvement.

For the report and the investigation to be credible it must explore all aspects of the decision facing us. The five economic tests ask

  • Whether there can be sustainable convergence between Britain and the economies of a single currency?

  • Whether there is sufficient flexibility to cope with any emerging problems?

  • What will be the effect on investment in Britain of joining?

  • What will be the effect on the UK financial services industry?

  • Whether economic and monetary union is good for employment?

The committee must come to a comprehensive judgement on these questions. In addition, in a paper to the committee published in September the chancellor has added fourteen more specific areas of inquiry, including the effect of the difference in our housing market compared to Europe, and what the effect of EMU will be on our trade.

On top of the oral evidence that it will take, the committee will also ask for a number of written papers on the various aspects of EMU that the chancellor has outlined. These papers will ensure that the committee report has a level of comprehensiveness which will allow it to form the basis of intelligent wider public discussion.

The committee wants to unravel the real issues involved. We want to understand what will be the relationship between having a common currency with the rest of the EU and economic performance.

The argument is made that adopting the euro means adopting currently poor European economic growth. Is this true? Does having the same currency mean having the same performance as our European neighbours? Or, as is the case between different parts of the UK, can different parts of a currency union have different economic performance?

Fear of the unknown and of something never tried before in the history of the world must not blind us to the undoubted benefits. Britain wants the benefits of the euro - benefits that could be very large. The scale of the choice facing Britain will not be surpassed for decades. Whichever way the country turns, the economic and social effects of our decision will last long into the future.

Published: Fri, 10 Jan 2003 01:00:00 GMT+00
Author: John McFall