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Rates won't go up says Bank chief

Interest rate rises are unlikely to rise substantially despite record-breaking house price rises, the Bank of England has said.

The outgoing deputy governor of the Bank of England, David Clementi, said the current run of strong growth did not pose a threat of higher interest rates.

"My view is that the current state of the housing market does not, taken on its own, raise undue concerns for the inflation outlook," he said.

"Even if the property market gets out of line, monetary policy adjustment is only appropriate to the extent that property developments risk the inflation target not being met."

It would be wrong to raise base rates simply to slow the housing market in the South East he argued and fears of prices tumbling were unlikely to be proved right.

"As with all imbalances, this situation will have to be resolved," he said. "But this need not necessarily involve a sharp correction in property prices."

His comments came as the Nationwide building society's monthly house price survey revealed record rises.

UK house prices have risen by just over £14,000, or 16.5 per cent, over the last 12 months, and by 90 per cent since the market's recovery started to take hold six years ago.

The society, which is one of the high street's biggest lenders, predicted affordability would underpin further prices. It also forecast that the market will eventually become stretched as first time buyers struggle to get on the ladder.

Group economist for Nationwide, Alex Bannister, said comparisons with the 1980s boom were alarmist.

"In order to test whether the market is becoming overheated we have examined the number of years of take home pay needed to purchase a typical UK property," he said.

"Currently this stands at 5.5 years, which compares favourably with the overheating towards the end of the 80s when it took seven years. Even more startling is that mortgage interest rates are currently over seven per cent lower. Mortgage payments consequently account for just under 25 per cent of take home pay compared with 58 per cent at the end of the 80s. From both of these perspectives the market looks sound."

Published: Tue, 30 Apr 2002 00:00:00 GMT+01
Author: Chris Smith