Result imminent

This week's election of a new Tory leader could be just the beginning of a period on intense division within Conservative ranks, a senior Tory warned on Sunday.

Lord Hurd, the former foreign secretary and one-time leadership contender, warned that Iain Duncan Smith could not expect the loyalty of pro-Europeans within the Conservative Party.

Reflecting on Duncan Smith's record on voting against his own party over the Maastricht treaty, Hurd warns that the pick and mix approach to loyalty will continue if he secures the leadership.

"Iain Duncan Smith made his reputation by following his own convictions, certainly, but by undermining, in concert with the Labour Party, what we were trying to do in Europe. He can't really call on any automatic loyalty against that background," he said.

Hurd, a supporter of Kenneth Clarke, said the party would remain divided under the shadow defence secretary who has said that pro-Europeans will have to temporarily step down from the shadow cabinet if they wish to campaign for a "yes vote" in any single currency referendum.

"There will be continued divisions because people will follow their convictions as he did. There have been divisions over Europe for many years and it has got more serious. It will not be resolved by this election and whoever is elected will have to manage the divisions and drain the poison away," he told The Sunday Telegraph.

His comments came as further polls predicted a victory for Duncan Smith. According to the latest survey the late surge in votes has boosted Duncan Smith's chances - with an estimated two to one vote for the shadow defence secretary.