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Bookies pledge to make money this election

Bookmakers are cashing in on the general election by offering punters odds on a range of election-related bets.

Gamblers can have a flutter on every aspect of the campaign from the number of seats each party will win to which politician has performed most effectively.

Both Ladbrokes and William Hill are offering odds of 50-1 on (1-50) on Labour achieving an overall majority. So a one pound stake would yield a two pence return.

The Conservatives are rated at between 12-1 and 16-1 to win a majority by most bookies with the Lib Dems at around the 300-1 mark.

With the election perceived by many as a one-horse race, bookmakers are reckoning the big bets won't be on the eventual winner, although that may not deter the most politically loyal gamblers.

"Some people are more disposed to believe certain eventualities - compilers and punters alike," said Sean Boyce of Ladbroke's.

Boyce believes the main markets will be for other bets instead, such as turnout or seat numbers.

Littlewoods are offering odds of 5-4 on Labour winning over 415 seats. William Hill also appears to believe that Labour will pass the 400 mark offering its shortest odds on totals above that figure.

The bookies' calculations make for grim reading at Conservative Central Office. Most of them seem to believe the Conservatives will not merely lose the election but will once again win fewer than 200 seats.

For the Lib Dems, there is mixed news. Ladbrokes puts them at 4-1 to improve on their 1997 showing by winning 49-52 seats and Boyce believes "the line is moving upwards". However, their leader might not be as secure as he might wish. Stanleybet.com is offering 11-5 on his Ross, Skye and Inverness West constituency to fall to Labour candidate, Donald Crichton.

With the polls and the odds as they are, several websites are speculating on who might replace William Hague were the Conservatives to lose the election.

William Hill has Michael Portillo at 6-4, Iain Duncan-Smith at 2-1, Ann Widdecombe at 11-2 and Francis Maude at 7-1.

Stanleybet also joins in the leadership speculation showing Portillo as the runaway favourite on 4-7. Lady Thatcher is 33-1 to replace her successor but one having returned to the political frontline during the election campaign.

Punters can also bet on the Labour leadership following allegations that the prime minister has a pact with Gordon Brown for the chancellor to replace him after two terms in office.

A spokeswoman for Stanleybet said that Brown was proving very popular with punters even though his odds are a mere 11-10. Favourite to lead his party into a third successive general election however, is Tony Blair at 4-7.

Several bookmakers, including Ladbrokes and William Hill are inviting customers to speculate on other serious bets such as the number of women MPs after the election and the number of SNP members of parliament.

In Scotland, there is once again little encouragement for the Conservatives. Having not won a single Scottish seat at the last election, the party is 5-6 with Ladbroke's for another wipe-out north of the border.

Prices being offered on serious bets other than the obvious suggests either the public is either politically well-informed or alternatively, that some people will bet on anything.

Political betting expert Elkan Allan suggests that election gamblers are a divided bunch, some serious and well-informed, others "chancers who enjoy betting for betting's sake".

On turnout, contrary to some predictions of low numbers, Ladbrokes, Littlewoods and Bluesq.com offer shorter odds on a turnout nearer the average 70 per cent mark.

For those who are looking for a bit of light relief from the weighty issues, several bookies are offering bets on election trivia.

Stanleybet has Tony Blair at 8-1 to duet with teen pop sensation Britney Spears at "Party in the Park" and embattled Europe minister Keith Vaz at 33-1 to win the next series of Survivor.

Published: Sat, 2 Jun 2001 00:00:00 GMT+01
Author: Subhankar Banerjee