An NOP poll in the Independent finds that Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives to 12 points in the past month.

Tony Blair's party is up four points to 42 per cent since January, while Michael Howard's Tories are down two on 30 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats have also fallen three points to 18 per cent.

But the biggest threat to Blair appears to be the apathy induced by another one-way contest. Just 55 per cent of the public say they are certain to vote, suggesting that turnout could fall below 1918 levels of 57 per cent, when troops were still returning from the trenches.