Writing in the Sun, political editor Trevor Kavanagh says that despite Labour's mounting problems, the Tories have failed to take advantage.

"Tony Blair and Iain Duncan Smith face dangerous party conferences over the next two weeks, yet it is IDS who is most at risk," he says.

"What he has to say at Blackpool may decide if he stays or goes as party leader."

Duncan Smith last night said the Conservatives will win the next general election.

The party leader said voters were "sick and tired" of Labour, while the Liberal Democrats were "getting away with murder".