The Independent claimed the Conservatives were gathering in Manchester amid a "crisis of confidence" and chairman Francis Maude's comments about possibly not winning the next election could be interpreted that way.

But equally they could just be seen as common sense, which is certainly the approach David Cameron is taking. As all experts agree, neck-an-neck in the polls will not be enough to win power in Westminster.

The two leading modernisers understand that there was always likely to be a post-Cameron honeymoon dip in the polls and that any lasting success will have to be built over the long term rather than 100 days.

And in Manchester the mood is anything but gloomy. Tories are positively buoyant about having such a young, dynamic leader, with Cameron moving about the modern conference centre - itself, like the choice of venue city, a symbol of change - like a rock star.

The party leader looked completely at home on stage with his jacket off alongside a small group of inner-city community activists in an impressively produced segment that included videos and one of his trademark, apparently unscripted speeches away from lectern.

What the party can't change overnight though is the make up of their activists.

The conference hall is still stuffed with stereotypical blue rinsed ladies from the home counties and distinguished gentlemen in suits.

Overwhelmingly white, they may not be the ideal storm troopers for the Tories to have taken on Friday afternoon into the inner-city Manchester wards the Tories want to win in the local elections next month.

How receptive they are to the modernising message is also open to question. The best received speech so far - bar Cameron's brief appearance by on the stage - was a traditionally tough law and order effort from shadow home secretary David Davis.

In contrast, the biggest cheer Maude got in his address was when he promised not to give delegates his "usual gloomfest" about how out of touch they are, while shadow chancellor George Osborne bombed.

So while he is probably not the most popular member of the frontbench in his party, Maude is right to say that the central challenge for the Tories is to show that modernisation is not just a marketing exercise and that more people than just he and Cameron believe in it.

That could well take more than 100 days.